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Senate winner·closes in 4mo

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

YES means Democratic Party

24h volume
11.6k
4.13M lifetime
Open interest
2.12M
+877.5k over 90d
Spread
1¢
19.4k × 80.4k at the touch
24h range
39¢ – 60¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
59%−1

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
41%

costs 41¢

YES bid / ask
59¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 41¢
24h low 39¢24h high 60¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8968¢
  • ask5,38567¢
  • ask55665¢
  • ask19664¢
  • ask38863¢
  • ask26.2k62¢
  • ask50.9k61¢
  • ask80.4k60¢
spread1¢mid 60¢
  • bid19.4k59¢
  • bid35.8k58¢
  • bid5,75357¢
  • bid15.8k56¢
  • bid30.1k55¢
  • bid44.9k54¢
  • bid17.3k53¢
  • bid12.0k52¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLS-2026-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago59¢41bought no
7m ago60¢41bought yes
39m ago60¢303bought yes
45m ago60¢16bought yes
46m ago59¢3.29bought no
52m ago60¢122bought yes
54m ago59¢1.97bought no
57m ago60¢8.1bought yes
1h ago59¢20bought no
1h ago59¢32bought no
2h ago60¢16bought yes
2h ago59¢18bought no
2h ago60¢16bought yes
2h ago60¢16bought yes
2h ago60¢32bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.