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EV market share·closes in 44mo

EV market share in 2030?

YES means Above 30%

24h volume
20
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
3,612
Spread
4¢
35 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 57¢

YES bid / ask
43¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 57¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1060¢
  • ask1059¢
  • ask1058¢
  • ask1057¢
  • ask12755¢
  • ask1054¢
  • ask0.3953¢
  • ask50047¢
spread4¢mid 45¢
  • bid3543¢
  • bid50042¢
  • bid50039¢
  • bid20038¢
  • bid1026¢
  • bid1025¢
  • bid3824¢
  • bid51023¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 30% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 12, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
May 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
30
ticker
EVSHARE-30JAN-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9h ago47¢15bought yes
9h ago47¢4.72bought yes
6d ago47¢14bought yes
6d ago46¢3.11bought yes
6d ago46¢3.82bought yes
6d ago46¢4.18bought yes
11d ago47¢1bought yes
14d ago41¢0.31bought no
14d ago42¢0.73bought no
16d ago42¢4.27bought no
19d ago42¢3bought no
23d ago39¢17bought no
23d ago39¢7.13bought no
23d ago40¢18bought no
23d ago41¢4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.