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EV market share·closes in 44mo

EV market share in 2030?

YES means Above 50%

24h volume
0
9,325 lifetime
Open interest
3,695
Spread
1¢
0.16 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 26¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 26¢
NO bid / ask
74¢ / 75¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,50166¢
  • ask50060¢
  • ask31645¢
  • ask48743¢
  • ask39829¢
  • ask18328¢
  • ask0.0927¢
  • ask50026¢
spread1¢mid 26¢
  • bid0.1625¢
  • bid10524¢
  • bid3522¢
  • bid16821¢
  • bid9020¢
  • bid1,15119¢
  • bid53018¢
  • bid3015¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 50% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 12, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
May 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
ticker
EVSHARE-30JAN-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago24¢0.73bought no
3d ago24¢1bought no
8d ago26¢1bought yes
9d ago24¢1bought no
14d ago24¢5bought no
16d ago26¢0.73bought yes
21d ago26¢1bought yes
21d ago26¢1bought yes
23d ago24¢17bought no
26d ago25¢2bought no
1mo ago25¢1bought no
1mo ago25¢14bought no
1mo ago26¢1bought yes
2mo ago26¢3bought yes
2mo ago25¢4.66bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.