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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Barack Obama

24h volume
0
1,922 lifetime
Open interest
1,122
+0.38 over 7d
Spread
3¢
18 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,0006¢
  • ask206¢
  • ask505¢
  • ask165¢
  • ask9215¢
  • ask5685¢
  • ask255¢
  • ask125¢
spread3¢mid 3¢
  • bid181¢
  • bid2441¢
  • bid861¢
  • bid11.1k1¢
  • bid280¢
  • bid10.0k0¢
  • bid502.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Barack Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-BOBA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago5¢0.38bought yes
9d ago4¢2bought yes
9d ago5¢3.68bought yes
9d ago4¢2.41bought yes
9d ago5¢5.21bought yes
9d ago4¢3.55bought yes
9d ago5¢79bought yes
11d ago1¢131bought no
11d ago1¢5.26bought no
11d ago1¢0.79bought no
11d ago1¢5.59bought no
11d ago1¢0.07bought no
11d ago1¢169bought no
11d ago1¢0.63bought no
1mo ago1¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.