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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Jared Polis

24h volume
0
9,766 lifetime
Open interest
6,582
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
82 × 1.91 at the touch
24h range
39¢ – 39¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
39%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
61%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 64¢
24h low 39¢24h high 39¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jared Polis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago39¢0.12bought yes
7d ago37¢2.45bought no
17d ago39¢2.45bought yes
17d ago36¢1.91bought no
17d ago37¢9.09bought no
17d ago40¢0.43bought yes
17d ago40¢14bought yes
17d ago40¢25bought yes
17d ago39¢4bought yes
17d ago39¢3.16bought yes
17d ago39¢6.32bought yes
18d ago35¢100bought no
18d ago36¢13bought no
18d ago35¢22bought no
21d ago39¢5.11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.