galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Raphael Warnock

24h volume
200
8,376 lifetime
Open interest
4,288
+271 over 7d
Spread
4¢
1,000 × 21 at the touch
24h range
33¢ – 33¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
31¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 69¢
24h low 33¢24h high 33¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,00047¢
  • ask15646¢
  • ask1,00040¢
  • ask3739¢
  • ask2938¢
  • ask2537¢
  • ask236¢
  • ask2135¢
spread4¢mid 33¢
  • bid1,00031¢
  • bid19316¢
  • bid2015¢
  • bid2612¢
  • bid55011¢
  • bid2,8734¢
  • bid504¢
  • bid4044¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Raphael Warnock announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-RWAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago33¢100bought no
14h ago33¢2bought no
14h ago33¢98bought no
3d ago33¢2.11bought yes
3d ago33¢12bought yes
4d ago32¢100bought no
6d ago34¢12bought yes
6d ago34¢16bought yes
6d ago32¢1bought yes
6d ago32¢5bought no
9d ago31¢1,000bought no
9d ago34¢100bought no
9d ago27¢26bought no
9d ago26¢268bought no
9d ago27¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.