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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Stephen A. Smith

24h volume
15
34.4k lifetime
Open interest
13.6k
+3.56 over 7d
Spread
1¢
145 × 9.76 at the touch
24h range
19¢ – 20¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
19%−1

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
24h low 19¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask451¢
  • ask32550¢
  • ask1,00027¢
  • ask11426¢
  • ask4325¢
  • ask1624¢
  • ask2521¢
  • ask9.7620¢
spread1¢mid 19¢
  • bid14519¢
  • bid1,00018¢
  • bid12711¢
  • bid1879¢
  • bid6.169¢
  • bid17¢
  • bid553¢
  • bid383¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago19¢5bought no
15h ago20¢10bought yes
5d ago21¢2.49bought no
5d ago21¢5bought no
5d ago20¢11bought no
6d ago26¢0.36bought yes
7d ago19¢30bought no
14d ago25¢196bought yes
14d ago26¢7.78bought yes
14d ago24¢9.58bought yes
14d ago24¢15bought yes
14d ago18¢2.4bought no
14d ago19¢21bought no
14d ago24¢2bought yes
17d ago22¢3.42bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.