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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Brian Kemp

24h volume
0
925 lifetime
Open interest
335
+52 over 90d
Spread
4¢
9.05 × 100 at the touch
24h range
31¢ – 38¢
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 37¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 37¢
NO bid / ask
63¢ / 67¢
24h low 31¢24h high 38¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volJun 27Sep 17

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask550¢
  • ask7249¢
  • ask545¢
  • ask7844¢
  • ask1,00040¢
  • ask1139¢
  • ask0.3938¢
  • ask10037¢
spread4¢mid 35¢
  • bid9.0533¢
  • bid5032¢
  • bid1,02031¢
  • bid1030¢
  • bid11910¢
  • bid4010¢
  • bid1510¢
  • bid8310¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Brian Kemp announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-BKEM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago38¢1.48bought yes
8d ago37¢3.63bought yes
17d ago37¢1.39bought yes
17d ago38¢35bought yes
17d ago37¢0.69bought yes
17d ago37¢0.74bought yes
23d ago33¢1.37bought no
23d ago33¢3.55bought no
23d ago34¢0.08bought no
1mo ago35¢15bought no
2mo ago37¢26bought yes
2mo ago34¢148bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.