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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Erika Kirk

24h volume
0
5,815 lifetime
Open interest
2,137
+317 over 90d
Spread
3¢
75 × 210 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 87¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask525¢
  • ask1124¢
  • ask1,00021¢
  • ask96920¢
  • ask16619¢
  • ask2618¢
  • ask5017¢
  • ask21016¢
spread3¢mid 15¢
  • bid7513¢
  • bid1,20712¢
  • bid19¢
  • bid1434¢
  • bid1004¢
  • bid503¢
  • bid153¢
  • bid1,8491¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Erika Kirk announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago12¢0.49bought no
7d ago13¢0.51bought no
11d ago12¢2.25bought no
15d ago12¢1.12bought no
16d ago17¢50bought yes
16d ago16¢5.45bought yes
18d ago14¢12bought no
18d ago14¢74bought no
18d ago12¢148bought no
22d ago14¢20bought no
23d ago15¢35bought yes
23d ago15¢91bought yes
24d ago14¢5.75bought no
1mo ago13¢2.75bought no
1mo ago14¢0.07bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.