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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Greg Abbott

24h volume
0
6,849 lifetime
Open interest
764
+0 over 24h
Spread
3¢
10 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 82¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 9:32 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4861¢
  • ask350¢
  • ask440¢
  • ask530¢
  • ask16229¢
  • ask1,00023¢
  • ask5.0322¢
  • ask10021¢
spread3¢mid 19¢
  • bid1018¢
  • bid1817¢
  • bid3516¢
  • bid3515¢
  • bid1,00014¢
  • bid1066¢
  • bid36¢
  • bid1175¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Greg Abbott announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-GABB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago22¢8.4bought yes
9d ago21¢100bought yes
9d ago20¢4.15bought yes
20d ago18¢1.41bought no
20d ago18¢3.59bought no
20d ago20¢2.36bought yes
25d ago20¢25bought yes
1mo ago22¢3.53bought yes
1mo ago21¢1.47bought yes
1mo ago19¢0.4bought yes
1mo ago20¢47bought yes
1mo ago19¢2.19bought yes
2mo ago18¢1bought no
2mo ago17¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.