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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Josh Hawley

24h volume
0
22.8k lifetime
Open interest
8,634
+3,971 over 90d
Spread
2¢
1,000 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 92¢
Recent buying1% YES · 99% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask540¢
  • ask13739¢
  • ask1635¢
  • ask8534¢
  • ask1,00011¢
  • ask1310¢
  • ask1010¢
  • ask1210¢
spread2¢mid 9¢
  • bid1,0008¢
  • bid112¢
  • bid372¢
  • bid111¢
  • bid3061¢
  • bid2.821¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
  • bid2,1021¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Hawley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-JHAW
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 1% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago7¢5bought no
1d ago3¢841bought no
1d ago3¢841bought no
2d ago3¢2.3bought no
2d ago3¢1.24bought no
2d ago3¢17bought no
2d ago3¢5.62bought no
3d ago5¢22bought yes
3d ago5¢8bought yes
4d ago5¢83bought no
4d ago21¢68bought no
4d ago23¢4bought no
4d ago22¢4bought no
4d ago23¢4bought no
4d ago18¢3,070bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.