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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means John Thune

24h volume
0
752 lifetime
Open interest
443
+20 over 7d
Spread
8¢
5 × 44 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 98¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 15Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask347¢
  • ask9446¢
  • ask1,00011¢
  • ask14310¢
  • ask11010¢
  • ask4210¢
  • ask510¢
  • ask4410¢
spread8¢mid 6¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid1,0002¢
  • bid2,0901¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid5,0090¢
  • bid6,2600¢
  • bid50.0k0¢
  • bid502.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Thune announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-JTHU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago2¢5bought no
2d ago2¢9.27bought no
2d ago2¢6.02bought no
6d ago2¢8.03bought no
6d ago2¢11bought no
6d ago2¢0.18bought no
6d ago2¢57bought no
6d ago2¢50bought no
1mo ago9¢4.11bought yes
1mo ago3¢4.11bought no
1mo ago7¢127bought yes
2mo ago7¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.