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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Matt Gaetz

24h volume
0
3,381 lifetime
Open interest
1,935
Spread
1¢
0.01 × 267 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6.7823¢
  • ask1822¢
  • ask5.2321¢
  • ask50015¢
  • ask2.7114¢
  • ask1,00013¢
  • ask2.8812¢
  • ask2675¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid0.014¢
  • bid9964¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid1.292¢
  • bid5012¢
  • bid0.022¢
  • bid2072¢
  • bid3,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Matt Gaetz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-MGAE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago5¢71bought yes
3d ago5¢5bought yes
3d ago5¢46bought yes
17d ago4¢1.03bought no
19d ago4¢1.37bought no
19d ago4¢3.63bought no
1mo ago7¢587bought no
1mo ago7¢3bought no
2mo ago6¢5bought no
2mo ago5¢117bought no
2mo ago6¢96bought no
2mo ago3¢7.24bought no
2mo ago3¢5bought no
2mo ago3¢805bought no
2mo ago3¢205bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.