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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Marco Rubio

24h volume
9.47
44.2k lifetime
Open interest
20.2k
Spread
1¢
405 × 365 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%−1

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 50¢

YES bid / ask
50¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 50¢
Recent buying19% YES · 81% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55560¢
  • ask47559¢
  • ask53058¢
  • ask6657¢
  • ask55556¢
  • ask11855¢
  • ask22752¢
  • ask36551¢
spread1¢mid 51¢
  • bid40550¢
  • bid2,67445¢
  • bid540¢
  • bid1,00036¢
  • bid1725¢
  • bid1,88624¢
  • bid10012¢
  • bid513¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 19% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago51¢6.49bought yes
3h ago51¢2.98bought yes
1d ago51¢11bought yes
1d ago52¢3.25bought yes
1d ago51¢5bought yes
3d ago47¢1.67bought no
3d ago47¢9.44bought no
3d ago48¢5bought no
3d ago47¢0.89bought no
3d ago53¢5.48bought yes
3d ago51¢1.89bought yes
3d ago53¢18bought yes
4d ago50¢48bought yes
5d ago50¢1bought yes
7d ago47¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.