galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Marjorie Taylor Greene

24h volume
0
38.0k lifetime
Open interest
5,995
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
14 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 67¢
Recent buying17% YES · 83% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask365¢
  • ask555¢
  • ask3854¢
  • ask550¢
  • ask15749¢
  • ask540¢
  • ask1,00039¢
  • ask1038¢
spread5¢mid 36¢
  • bid1433¢
  • bid532¢
  • bid2331¢
  • bid1,00030¢
  • bid4814¢
  • bid22313¢
  • bid55012¢
  • bid99811¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marjorie Taylor Greene announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-MTAY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 17% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago38¢5.04bought yes
8d ago38¢2.52bought yes
9d ago38¢10bought yes
12d ago38¢51bought yes
12d ago37¢13bought yes
13d ago37¢1.43bought yes
13d ago37¢26bought yes
13d ago38¢30bought yes
13d ago36¢5.9bought yes
15d ago31¢10bought no
15d ago32¢5bought no
15d ago32¢1.43bought no
17d ago39¢0.9bought yes
26d ago32¢15bought yes
26d ago37¢13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.