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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Nikki Haley

24h volume
0
9,291 lifetime
Open interest
4,831
Spread
2¢
7.01 × 1,030 at the touch
24h range
–
40 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 79¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7760¢
  • ask1459¢
  • ask1035¢
  • ask6134¢
  • ask1030¢
  • ask3729¢
  • ask9.425¢
  • ask1,03023¢
spread2¢mid 22¢
  • bid7.0121¢
  • bid1220¢
  • bid1319¢
  • bid59418¢
  • bid3317¢
  • bid69816¢
  • bid4415¢
  • bid1,00014¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Nikki Haley announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-NHAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 40 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago21¢2bought no
17d ago24¢0.9bought yes
18d ago23¢21bought yes
18d ago23¢10bought yes
18d ago23¢21bought yes
18d ago23¢3bought yes
22d ago19¢2.43bought no
22d ago23¢124bought yes
23d ago25¢0.6bought yes
23d ago21¢1.92bought yes
23d ago22¢18bought yes
23d ago22¢20bought yes
23d ago24¢42bought yes
24d ago21¢7.15bought yes
25d ago18¢24bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.