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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Pete Hegseth

24h volume
0
7,937 lifetime
Open interest
2,711
Spread
5¢
5 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 78¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,23567¢
  • ask1,24566¢
  • ask4865¢
  • ask5534¢
  • ask4133¢
  • ask1,00029¢
  • ask5628¢
  • ask1027¢
spread5¢mid 25¢
  • bid522¢
  • bid4921¢
  • bid1,00020¢
  • bid15014¢
  • bid98313¢
  • bid887¢
  • bid467¢
  • bid1,6034¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pete Hegseth announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 7, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago24¢25bought yes
17d ago24¢0.94bought yes
18d ago24¢13bought yes
18d ago21¢7.35bought yes
20d ago21¢13bought yes
21d ago21¢4.51bought yes
22d ago19¢1.31bought no
23d ago19¢0.06bought no
23d ago21¢113bought yes
23d ago21¢23bought yes
23d ago21¢27bought yes
23d ago21¢77bought yes
23d ago21¢39bought yes
23d ago19¢0.19bought yes
23d ago19¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.