galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Rand Paul

24h volume
0
10.6k lifetime
Open interest
8,852
−70 over 7d
Spread
3¢
4.23 × 16 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 59¢

YES bid / ask
41¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 59¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1065¢
  • ask1564¢
  • ask82962¢
  • ask29961¢
  • ask1,01047¢
  • ask4346¢
  • ask8845¢
  • ask1644¢
spread3¢mid 42¢
  • bid4.2341¢
  • bid540¢
  • bid2239¢
  • bid1,00038¢
  • bid30816¢
  • bid115¢
  • bid3,1967¢
  • bid5507¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rand Paul announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22, 2025 · 9:55 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-RPAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago42¢5bought no
2d ago39¢29bought no
2d ago38¢44bought no
6d ago44¢2.45bought yes
6d ago44¢3.69bought yes
6d ago45¢12bought yes
6d ago44¢3.15bought yes
6d ago44¢0.14bought yes
6d ago40¢6.51bought no
6d ago41¢3bought no
6d ago41¢4.33bought no
6d ago41¢5.84bought no
8d ago44¢5.82bought yes
8d ago45¢16bought yes
8d ago44¢2.18bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.