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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Sarah Huckabee Sanders

24h volume
0
4,940 lifetime
Open interest
1,301
+344 over 90d
Spread
4¢
6.83 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 77¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask39473¢
  • ask26072¢
  • ask240¢
  • ask235¢
  • ask9534¢
  • ask230¢
  • ask1229¢
  • ask1,00027¢
spread4¢mid 25¢
  • bid6.8323¢
  • bid522¢
  • bid1621¢
  • bid5520¢
  • bid52919¢
  • bid1,00018¢
  • bid6213¢
  • bid512¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sarah Huckabee Sanders announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-SHS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago27¢70bought yes
5d ago25¢6.56bought yes
5d ago25¢6.23bought yes
5d ago24¢0.64bought yes
5d ago24¢5bought yes
5d ago26¢8.15bought yes
15d ago22¢5bought no
1mo ago24¢395bought yes
1mo ago23¢1.09bought yes
2mo ago21¢1.36bought no
2mo ago21¢19bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.