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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Steve Bannon

24h volume
0
9,188 lifetime
Open interest
5,273
+318 over 30d
Spread
2¢
1,000 × 3.31 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 79¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢volAug 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask149¢
  • ask1,22830¢
  • ask6529¢
  • ask1027¢
  • ask2826¢
  • ask16825¢
  • ask15024¢
  • ask3.3123¢
spread2¢mid 22¢
  • bid1,00021¢
  • bid2520¢
  • bid837¢
  • bid507¢
  • bid5505¢
  • bid1,4234¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid1,0011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Steve Bannon announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 8, 2025 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago22¢32bought no
5d ago24¢119bought yes
5d ago24¢142bought yes
5d ago23¢1.35bought yes
5d ago22¢25bought yes
5d ago21¢25bought yes
16d ago21¢277bought no
16d ago22¢35bought no
22d ago21¢2.31bought no
22d ago21¢0.54bought no
22d ago21¢6.14bought no
22d ago21¢1.01bought no
1mo ago24¢65bought yes
1mo ago24¢13bought yes
1mo ago23¢26bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.