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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Ted Cruz

24h volume
9.46
23.7k lifetime
Open interest
6,944
Spread
1¢
200 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
76¢ – 76¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 25¢
24h low 76¢24h high 76¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.1793¢
  • ask1693¢
  • ask1090¢
  • ask3389¢
  • ask4.2188¢
  • ask10385¢
  • ask7.3284¢
  • ask1,00076¢
spread1¢mid 76¢
  • bid20075¢
  • bid2374¢
  • bid0.0873¢
  • bid1,00472¢
  • bid84271¢
  • bid1,35570¢
  • bid1368¢
  • bid1,00067¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18h ago76¢9.46bought yes
2d ago76¢1,000bought yes
3d ago76¢1.17bought no
4d ago82¢25bought yes
4d ago78¢3.19bought no
4d ago77¢53bought no
4d ago77¢5.11bought no
4d ago76¢19bought no
4d ago79¢0.79bought no
4d ago78¢23bought no
6d ago84¢12bought yes
10d ago79¢14bought no
10d ago79¢1.33bought no
10d ago79¢1.33bought no
10d ago80¢0.54bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.