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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Tulsi Gabbard

24h volume
0
7,995 lifetime
Open interest
3,074
+1,156 over 90d
Spread
3¢
13 × 43 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
25%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
75%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 76¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask550¢
  • ask88548¢
  • ask2547¢
  • ask545¢
  • ask1544¢
  • ask532¢
  • ask1,00028¢
  • ask4327¢
spread3¢mid 26¢
  • bid1324¢
  • bid523¢
  • bid1122¢
  • bid24721¢
  • bid2220¢
  • bid1,00019¢
  • bid5714¢
  • bid2013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tulsi Gabbard announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-TGAB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13d ago25¢8.25bought no
17d ago25¢2.62bought no
18d ago27¢4bought no
23d ago30¢32bought yes
23d ago40¢4.55bought yes
23d ago35¢3bought yes
23d ago30¢5bought yes
23d ago34¢65bought yes
23d ago29¢22bought yes
23d ago34¢45bought yes
24d ago23¢10bought yes
24d ago26¢29bought yes
24d ago27¢17bought yes
24d ago28¢791bought yes
24d ago25¢7.86bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.