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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Thomas Massie

24h volume
19
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
8,070
+19 over 24h
Spread
3¢
13 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
50¢ – 50¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 53¢
24h low 50¢24h high 50¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢volSep 20, 6:40 AMSep 21, 1:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,46275¢
  • ask11974¢
  • ask173¢
  • ask6.3266¢
  • ask23465¢
  • ask40060¢
  • ask13359¢
  • ask1,00050¢
spread3¢mid 49¢
  • bid1347¢
  • bid1546¢
  • bid2545¢
  • bid3.0344¢
  • bid4143¢
  • bid15042¢
  • bid1,06741¢
  • bid22532¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Thomas Massie announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 16 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18h ago50¢19bought yes
2d ago49¢2.72bought yes
2d ago50¢1.17bought yes
2d ago48¢6.94bought yes
2d ago49¢3.03bought yes
3d ago50¢0.34bought yes
4d ago57¢26bought yes
5d ago50¢1.77bought yes
5d ago49¢0.15bought yes
5d ago50¢1.93bought yes
6d ago45¢13bought no
7d ago46¢1bought no
7d ago46¢0.9bought no
7d ago46¢8.1bought no
8d ago47¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.