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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Belize normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Belize

24h volume
0
1,476 lifetime
Open interest
491
Spread
4¢
14 × 158 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 94¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16749¢
  • ask4247¢
  • ask1,16546¢
  • ask4745¢
  • ask9240¢
  • ask30013¢
  • ask3211¢
  • ask15810¢
spread4¢mid 8¢
  • bid146¢
  • bid2004¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid102¢
  • bid1401¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid9271¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Belize normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2025 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-BELI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago8¢2.21bought no
1d ago8¢70bought no
1d ago8¢86bought no
4d ago11¢86bought yes
21d ago8¢112bought no
21d ago8¢5.79bought no
27d ago13¢3.62bought yes
29d ago12¢5.79bought yes
29d ago13¢31bought yes
2mo ago11¢6.07bought yes
2mo ago12¢2.21bought yes
2mo ago8¢1.07bought no
2mo ago13¢5bought yes
2mo ago8¢5bought no
2mo ago8¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.