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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Belize normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Belize

24h volume
0
1,476 lifetime
Open interest
491
+89 over 30d
Spread
4¢
14 × 158 at the touch
24h range
8¢ – 13¢
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 94¢
24h low 8¢24h high 13¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volAug 23Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7450¢
  • ask16749¢
  • ask4247¢
  • ask1,24246¢
  • ask9240¢
  • ask30013¢
  • ask3211¢
  • ask15810¢
spread4¢mid 8¢
  • bid146¢
  • bid2004¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid102¢
  • bid1401¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid1,5460¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Belize normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2025 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-BELI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.