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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Iran normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Iran

24h volume
0
807 lifetime
Open interest
700
Spread
6¢
0.62 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 98¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1345¢
  • ask2529¢
  • ask121¢
  • ask0.8519¢
  • ask3113¢
  • ask30010¢
  • ask889¢
  • ask18¢
spread6¢mid 5¢
  • bid0.622¢
  • bid2591¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 24 · 10:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-IRAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago2¢4.38bought no
6d ago2¢1bought no
10d ago9¢1.1bought yes
10d ago9¢12bought yes
10d ago6¢25bought yes
10d ago5¢2bought yes
11d ago2¢10bought no
14d ago2¢0.5bought yes
14d ago2¢15bought yes
26d ago3¢1.05bought yes
27d ago2¢0.5bought no
1mo ago1¢50bought no
1mo ago1¢41bought no
1mo ago2¢5bought no
1mo ago2¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.