Will Israel and Iran normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Iran
- 24h volume
- 1
- 808 lifetime
- Open interest
- 699
- +244 over 90d
- Spread
- 7¢
- 117 × 88 at the touch
- 24h range
- 8¢ – 8¢
- 30 recent trades
A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 98¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask12945¢
- ask342¢
- ask2529¢
- ask121¢
- ask0.8519¢
- ask3113¢
- ask30010¢
- ask889¢
- bid1172¢
- bid2591¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Israel and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.
- opened
- May 24 · 10:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-IRAN
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 30 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 2¢ | 4.38 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 2¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 9¢ | 1.1 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 9¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 6¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 5¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 2¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 14d ago | 2¢ | 0.5 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 2¢ | 15 | bought yes |
| 26d ago | 3¢ | 1.05 | bought yes |
| 27d ago | 2¢ | 0.5 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 1¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 1¢ | 41 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 2¢ | 5 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.