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Agencies eliminated·closes in 28mo

Will IRS be eliminated?

YES means IRS

24h volume
0
33.9k lifetime
Open interest
5,988
Spread
4¢
499 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
42 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 94¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,93246¢
  • ask95345¢
  • ask50024¢
  • ask10023¢
  • ask10616¢
  • ask50010¢
  • ask25010¢
  • ask510¢
spread4¢mid 8¢
  • bid4996¢
  • bid226¢
  • bid1304¢
  • bid1664¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid13¢
  • bid1773¢
  • bid103¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If IRS is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 20, 2025 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGENCYELIM-29-IRS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 42 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago10¢8.25bought yes
11d ago6¢5bought no
11d ago6¢47bought no
21d ago7¢3.96bought yes
21d ago7¢499bought yes
21d ago7¢0.45bought yes
21d ago7¢6.76bought yes
23d ago3¢7.21bought no
24d ago7¢1.04bought yes
26d ago7¢58bought yes
26d ago7¢24bought yes
27d ago3¢13bought no
1mo ago6¢108bought no
1mo ago6¢0.07bought no
2mo ago5¢14bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.