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Agencies eliminated·closes in 28mo

Will NASA be eliminated?

YES means NASA

24h volume
0
2,184 lifetime
Open interest
757
+122 over 90d
Spread
7¢
5 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 98¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,68746¢
  • ask75032¢
  • ask1,60331¢
  • ask25022¢
  • ask10015¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask2508¢
spread6¢mid 5¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid102¢
  • bid1741¢
  • bid4461¢
  • bid4001¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If NASA is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 22, 2025 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGENCYELIM-29-NASA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22d ago5¢1bought yes
22d ago5¢5bought yes
22d ago5¢19bought yes
22d ago5¢0.18bought yes
24d ago5¢1bought yes
24d ago2¢1bought no
24d ago2¢1.97bought no
24d ago2¢17bought no
24d ago2¢5bought no
2mo ago4¢1bought yes
2mo ago5¢13bought yes
2mo ago6¢1.97bought yes
2mo ago5¢1bought yes
2mo ago3¢1bought yes
2mo ago2¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.