AI biosecurity controls·closes in 3mo

Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
55
3,958 lifetime
Open interest
2,691
−45 over 24h
Spread
55 × 31 at the touch
24h range
27¢ – 28¢
35 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%+3

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask
27¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 73¢
24h low 27¢24h high 28¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 5:24 AMSep 21, 5:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,39278¢
  • ask1,24576¢
  • ask34771¢
  • ask24270¢
  • ask563¢
  • ask10034¢
  • ask6933¢
  • ask3132¢
spreadmid 30¢
  • bid5527¢
  • bid20026¢
  • bid10025¢
  • bid42224¢
  • bid1,61421¢
  • bid547
  • bid1,555
  • bid3,020
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If federal legislation requiring AI biosecurity controls has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require evaluations or safeguards for AI models or systems that specifically address biological misuse or harm. Mandatory biosecurity testing or evaluations qualify, as do controls on access, capabilities, security, deployment, or procurement tied to biological risk. The requirement may be part of a broader AI law or apply only to a defined sector or federal procurement. Studies, voluntary standards, funding, and gene-synthesis, laboratory, or biological-data rules without an operative AI-model or system requirement do not qualify. General AI or cybersecurity requirements and incident reporting alone are insufficient without the defined biosecurity evaluation or safeguard. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is Section 1654 of S. 4784, the Senate FY2027 defense authorization bill.

opened
Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 35 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago28¢10bought no
5h ago27¢45bought no
1d ago24¢137bought yes
2d ago24¢10bought no
2d ago25¢204bought no
2d ago26¢0.47bought no
2d ago27¢31bought no
2d ago27¢13bought no
2d ago32¢94bought no
2d ago32¢200bought no
2d ago32¢1bought no
2d ago32¢8.69bought no
2d ago32¢51bought no
2d ago32¢205bought no
3d ago32¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.