Will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2027
- 24h volume
- 55
- 3,958 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,691
- +2,691 over 30d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 55 × 31 at the touch
- 24h range
- 27¢ – 28¢
- 35 recent trades
A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 73¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask1,39278¢
- ask1,24576¢
- ask34771¢
- ask24270¢
- ask563¢
- ask10034¢
- ask6933¢
- ask3132¢
- bid5527¢
- bid20026¢
- bid10025¢
- bid42224¢
- bid1,61421¢
- bid5476¢
- bid1,5555¢
- bid3,0203¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If federal legislation requiring AI biosecurity controls has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A qualifying federal law must require evaluations or safeguards for AI models or systems that specifically address biological misuse or harm. Mandatory biosecurity testing or evaluations qualify, as do controls on access, capabilities, security, deployment, or procurement tied to biological risk. The requirement may be part of a broader AI law or apply only to a defined sector or federal procurement. Studies, voluntary standards, funding, and gene-synthesis, laboratory, or biological-data rules without an operative AI-model or system requirement do not qualify. General AI or cybersecurity requirements and incident reporting alone are insufficient without the defined biosecurity evaluation or safeguard. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is Section 1654 of S. 4784, the Senate FY2027 defense authorization bill.
- opened
- Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 35 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 28¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 5h ago | 27¢ | 45 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 24¢ | 137 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 24¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 25¢ | 204 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 26¢ | 0.47 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 27¢ | 31 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 27¢ | 13 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 94 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 8.69 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 51 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 32¢ | 205 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 32¢ | 6 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.