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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?

YES means Aaron Pierre

24h volume
0
38.8k lifetime
Open interest
15.3k
+100 over 7d
Spread
1¢
227 × 1,050 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask717¢
  • ask30615¢
  • ask11113¢
  • ask612¢
  • ask32810¢
  • ask1,0008¢
  • ask1,8383¢
  • ask1,0502¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid2271¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Aaron Pierre is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 24, 2025 · 1:05 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-AP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago4¢75bought yes
6d ago3¢25bought yes
11d ago3¢20bought yes
11d ago3¢225bought yes
11d ago2¢25bought yes
11d ago2¢18bought yes
11d ago2¢212bought yes
11d ago1¢500bought no
11d ago2¢94bought yes
16d ago2¢2.03bought no
17d ago2¢2,000bought yes
17d ago2¢222bought yes
17d ago2¢438bought yes
17d ago2¢25bought yes
17d ago2¢67bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.