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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Nicholas Galitzine be the next James Bond?

YES means Nicholas Galitzine

24h volume
0
899 lifetime
Open interest
759
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
0 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20948¢
  • ask1,70642¢
  • ask8224¢
  • ask2,0694¢
  • ask1,0002¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Nicholas Galitzine is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 25 · 8:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXBOND-30-NICH
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 13 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    13d ago4¢23bought yes
    13d ago5¢100bought yes
    13d ago5¢233bought yes
    13d ago4¢25bought yes
    13d ago4¢27bought yes
    16d ago1¢19bought yes
    16d ago1¢25bought yes
    16d ago2¢165bought yes
    17d ago1¢50bought yes
    17d ago1¢66bought yes
    17d ago1¢25bought yes
    20d ago2¢47bought yes
    20d ago2¢94bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.