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When will bitcoin hit 100k?·closes in 2mo

Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before January 2027

24h volume
19.2k
1.55M lifetime
Open interest
500.5k
+137.4k over 30d
Spread
1¢
4,008 × 5,302 at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 55¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%+2

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
24h low 13¢24h high 55¢
Recent buying13% YES · 87% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volOct 6Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask29023¢
  • ask89022¢
  • ask14021¢
  • ask30120¢
  • ask5,33319¢
  • ask79918¢
  • ask4,83917¢
  • ask5,30216¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid4,00815¢
  • bid67214¢
  • bid2,64113¢
  • bid3,00112¢
  • bid3,25011¢
  • bid3,05110¢
  • bid12.6k8¢
  • bid10.3k7¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 17 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 13% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago16¢0.05bought yes
2h ago16¢273bought yes
2h ago16¢429bought yes
2h ago16¢2.19bought yes
2h ago16¢129bought yes
3h ago16¢30bought yes
5h ago15¢1,030bought no
5h ago15¢421bought no
5h ago15¢400bought no
5h ago15¢3,000bought no
5h ago15¢90bought no
5h ago15¢42bought no
5h ago15¢17bought no
5h ago16¢185bought yes
5h ago16¢1.18bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.