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When will bitcoin hit 100k?·closes in 10d

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before October 2026

24h volume
56.0k
1.83M lifetime
Open interest
978.0k
+55.5k over 24h
Spread
1¢
28 × 31.4k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+2

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 1¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 5:05 AMSep 21, 4:45 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9,62620¢
  • ask2,00018¢
  • ask10216¢
  • ask10715¢
  • ask4013¢
  • ask156¢
  • ask20.0k5¢
  • ask31.4k4¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid283¢
  • bid7772¢
  • bid30.8k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 17 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 4:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago4¢167bought yes
3h ago2¢25bought yes
3h ago2¢100bought yes
3h ago2¢2.16bought yes
3h ago2¢333bought yes
3h ago2¢19bought yes
3h ago3¢1,000bought yes
3h ago4¢22.5kbought yes
3h ago3¢20.0kbought yes
3h ago3¢100bought yes
3h ago3¢9,801bought yes
4h ago2¢0.25bought yes
4h ago2¢0.24bought yes
4h ago2¢19bought yes
4h ago2¢1,122bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.