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Bitcoin monthly one touch·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Above $87,500.00

24h volume
10.2k
428.2k lifetime
Open interest
193.3k
+101.9k over 7d
Spread
1¢
3,665 × 1.85 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 29¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%+5

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 77¢
24h low 18¢24h high 29¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15733¢
  • ask10531¢
  • ask55430¢
  • ask3,00029¢
  • ask32428¢
  • ask2,66826¢
  • ask1,16325¢
  • ask1.8524¢
spread1¢mid 24¢
  • bid3,66523¢
  • bid26122¢
  • bid1.320¢
  • bid10018¢
  • bid46517¢
  • bid1,05016¢
  • bid45015¢
  • bid3,50014¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever above $ 87500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
87500
ticker
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26SEP30-8750000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25m ago24¢50bought yes
25m ago24¢2.59bought yes
54m ago24¢2.67bought no
54m ago24¢147bought no
1h ago25¢5.19bought yes
1h ago25¢195bought yes
1h ago25¢3bought yes
1h ago24¢12bought no
3h ago24¢8.01bought no
3h ago24¢15bought no
3h ago27¢144bought yes
3h ago25¢0.14bought yes
3h ago24¢15bought yes
4h ago24¢43bought no
4h ago25¢60bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.