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will Bitcoin hit price target by date·closes in 4mo

Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Mar 18, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET?

YES means By Mar 18, 2027

24h volume
10
2,122 lifetime
Open interest
2,022
Spread
5¢
204 × 3,001 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%−4

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 94¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2399¢
  • ask197¢
  • ask191¢
  • ask9472¢
  • ask21016¢
  • ask7812¢
  • ask3,00111¢
spread5¢mid 9¢
  • bid2046¢
  • bid25¢
  • bid3,0734¢
  • bid1491¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $130000 starting Sep 22, 2026 and before Mar 18, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 22 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 18, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 8, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
130000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-130000-27MAR18
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16h ago5¢10bought no
1d ago9¢104bought yes
1d ago9¢10bought yes
2d ago9¢52bought yes
2d ago9¢209bought yes
2d ago9¢9.4bought yes
3d ago9¢454bought yes
3d ago6¢10bought no
3d ago7¢6.9bought no
3d ago7¢6.13bought no
3d ago4¢27bought no
3d ago8¢2.77bought no
4d ago9¢10bought yes
4d ago9¢8.18bought yes
4d ago9¢3.45bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.