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Claude Model Release·closes in 25d

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026?

YES means Before Oct 16, 2026

24h volume
500
12.1k lifetime
Open interest
7,845
+4,574 over 30d
Spread
7¢
0 × 100 at the touch
24h range
5¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%−1

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 100¢
24h low 5¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volAug 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask17088¢
  • ask6784¢
  • ask14855¢
  • ask1,14347¢
  • ask54346¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask1,0008¢
  • ask1007¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 16 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26OCT16
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    9h ago5¢500bought no
    7d ago6¢11bought no
    12d ago7¢3,033bought yes
    12d ago8¢1,040bought yes
    13d ago7¢300bought yes
    19d ago5¢1,999bought no
    19d ago5¢1.04bought no
    22d ago9¢500bought no
    1mo ago8¢20bought yes
    1mo ago6¢125bought yes
    1mo ago5¢65bought yes
    1mo ago5¢85bought yes
    1mo ago6¢85bought yes
    1mo ago3¢103bought no
    1mo ago6¢75bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.