Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026?
YES means Before Oct 16, 2026
- 24h volume
- 500
- 12.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 7,845
- +7,845 over 90d
- Spread
- 7¢
- 0 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- 3¢ – 17¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- opened
- Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 16 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26OCT16
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9h ago | 5¢ | 500 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 6¢ | 11 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 7¢ | 3,033 | bought yes |
| 12d ago | 8¢ | 1,040 | bought yes |
| 13d ago | 7¢ | 300 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 5¢ | 1,999 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 5¢ | 1.04 | bought no |
| 22d ago | 9¢ | 500 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 8¢ | 20 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 6¢ | 125 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 65 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 85 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 6¢ | 85 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 103 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 6¢ | 75 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.