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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means 49

24h volume
987
151.1k lifetime
Open interest
109.9k
Spread
1¢
6.91 × 7.9 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−1

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 93¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,0169¢
  • ask19¢
  • ask5,0139¢
  • ask3629¢
  • ask3.629¢
  • ask1,1009¢
  • ask3738¢
  • ask7.98¢
spread1¢mid 8¢
  • bid6.918¢
  • bid1.017¢
  • bid8.087¢
  • bid277¢
  • bid1107¢
  • bid1,8357¢
  • bid366¢
  • bid26¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
49
cap
49
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-49
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago8¢5.01bought yes
1h ago8¢5.39bought yes
1h ago8¢3.14bought yes
1h ago8¢10bought yes
1h ago9¢32bought yes
2h ago7¢9.86bought yes
2h ago7¢48bought yes
2h ago8¢5.36bought yes
2h ago9¢2.78bought yes
2h ago8¢10bought yes
2h ago9¢4.94bought yes
2h ago8¢174bought yes
2h ago9¢95bought yes
4h ago7¢11bought yes
4h ago8¢51bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.