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Elon Mars·closes in 887mo

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

YES means Mars

24h volume
249
119.1k lifetime
Open interest
40.0k
−89 over 7d
Spread
3¢
593 × 617 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 12¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%+2

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 12¢
Recent buying22% YES · 78% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9.430¢
  • ask3927¢
  • ask15024¢
  • ask45221¢
  • ask2,05015¢
  • ask1014¢
  • ask1,79913¢
  • ask61712¢
spread3¢mid 11¢
  • bid5939¢
  • bid3578¢
  • bid3,1967¢
  • bid2,2836¢
  • bid935¢
  • bid6154¢
  • bid18.5k3¢
  • bid5072¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 28, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2099 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXELONMARS-99
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 22% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
43m ago12¢9.28bought yes
43m ago9¢9.28bought no
10h ago9¢191bought no
10h ago10¢22bought no
10h ago10¢17bought no
3d ago10¢1bought no
5d ago10¢1bought no
5d ago12¢1bought yes
5d ago10¢39bought no
5d ago12¢1bought yes
5d ago12¢0.2bought yes
5d ago12¢0.2bought yes
5d ago12¢0.5bought yes
7d ago10¢30bought no
7d ago10¢18bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.