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Fed meeting·closes in 1mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

YES means Cut 25bps

24h volume
17.6k
514.5k lifetime
Open interest
395.7k
+5,904 over 24h
Spread
1¢
0 × 540.9k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:36 AMSep 21, 2:08 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9508¢
  • ask267¢
  • ask10.4k6¢
  • ask22.2k5¢
  • ask21.0k4¢
  • ask180.6k3¢
  • ask307.7k2¢
  • ask540.9k1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 28 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1h ago1¢2,000bought yes
    8h ago1¢99bought yes
    8h ago1¢1bought yes
    8h ago1¢2,338bought yes
    10h ago1¢100bought yes
    12h ago1¢1,166bought yes
    20h ago1¢200bought yes
    23h ago1¢11.7kbought yes
    1d ago1¢468bought yes
    2d ago1¢935bought yes
    2d ago1¢200bought yes
    2d ago1¢101bought yes
    2d ago1¢101bought yes
    2d ago1¢101bought yes
    2d ago1¢101bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.