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Fed meeting·closed · NO

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

YES means Cut 25bps

24h volume
0
1.66M lifetime
Open interest
1.54M
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 28 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 28 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-C25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago1¢160bought yes
7d ago1¢24bought yes
7d ago1¢468bought yes
7d ago1¢997bought yes
7d ago1¢503bought yes
7d ago1¢1,000bought yes
7d ago1¢94bought yes
7d ago1¢468bought yes
7d ago1¢94bought yes
7d ago1¢935bought yes
7d ago1¢187bought yes
7d ago1¢468bought yes
7d ago1¢9.35bought yes
7d ago1¢94bought yes
7d ago1¢10.0kbought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.