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Fed meeting·closes in 13mo

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

YES means Cut >25bps

24h volume
0
1,796 lifetime
Open interest
228
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
3 × 19 at the touch
24h range
–
49 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 93¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 20, 8:33 PMSep 20, 9:47 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3618¢
  • ask3617¢
  • ask5816¢
  • ask3515¢
  • ask33414¢
  • ask14113¢
  • ask10012¢
  • ask1911¢
spread4¢mid 9¢
  • bid37¢
  • bid36¢
  • bid35¢
  • bid34¢
  • bid1033¢
  • bid2632¢
  • bid1,0201¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 27, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-C26
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 120¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 49 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago7¢4bought no
4d ago6¢1bought no
18d ago8¢9bought yes
21d ago4¢1bought yes
21d ago4¢2bought yes
21d ago3¢2bought yes
21d ago3¢28bought yes
21d ago3¢4bought yes
22d ago3¢23bought no
22d ago3¢5bought no
22d ago3¢12bought no
23d ago3¢0.81bought no
23d ago3¢1bought no
23d ago3¢7bought no
23d ago3¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.