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Fed meeting·closes in 13mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
22
1,939 lifetime
Open interest
1,262
−22 over 24h
Spread
15¢
553 × 15 at the touch
24h range
54¢ – 56¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
54%+1

A YES contract costs 69¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
46%

costs 46¢

YES bid / ask
54¢ / 69¢
NO bid / ask
31¢ / 46¢
24h low 54¢24h high 56¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 7:14 AMSep 21, 12:37 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12687¢
  • ask67578¢
  • ask10075¢
  • ask30073¢
  • ask2072¢
  • ask13871¢
  • ask10070¢
  • ask1569¢
spread15¢mid 62¢
  • bid55354¢
  • bid1,16553¢
  • bid39251¢
  • bid2236¢
  • bid10035¢
  • bid17534¢
  • bid20030¢
  • bid17129¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 27, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 27, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27OCT-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 120¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago56¢1bought no
1h ago56¢3bought no
1h ago55¢1bought no
1h ago54¢17bought no
4d ago53¢5bought no
7d ago67¢7.42bought yes
7d ago68¢100bought yes
7d ago69¢83bought yes
7d ago69¢150bought yes
10d ago54¢25bought yes
10d ago54¢75bought yes
10d ago53¢1bought no
10d ago54¢1bought no
10d ago53¢106bought no
13d ago54¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.