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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

YES means Above 1.25%

24h volume
1,370
2,234 lifetime
Open interest
731
+333 over 90d
Spread
2¢
155 × 105 at the touch
24h range
75¢ – 99¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
96%+1

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
4%

costs 4¢

YES bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
24h low 75¢24h high 99¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volJul 30Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9599¢
  • ask10598¢
spread2¢mid 97¢
  • bid15596¢
  • bid26495¢
  • bid30092¢
  • bid5170¢
  • bid6769¢
  • bid20068¢
  • bid1,52867¢
  • bid1,58166¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
1.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T1.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15h ago96¢155bought no
16h ago95¢200bought no
16h ago96¢132bought no
16h ago96¢23bought no
16h ago99¢200bought yes
16h ago99¢70bought yes
16h ago99¢200bought yes
16h ago99¢190bought yes
16h ago99¢100bought yes
16h ago98¢100bought yes
8d ago95¢0.99bought no
8d ago98¢0.99bought yes
11d ago98¢100bought yes
17d ago99¢64bought yes
17d ago99¢24bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.