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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.25%?

YES means Above 3.25%

24h volume
22
15.6k lifetime
Open interest
7,790
+4,738 over 7d
Spread
1¢
120 × 19 at the touch
24h range
71¢ – 90¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
87%−2

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
13%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
24h low 71¢24h high 90¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask42696¢
  • ask32295¢
  • ask33394¢
  • ask28793¢
  • ask4392¢
  • ask2,25090¢
  • ask1,51489¢
  • ask1987¢
spread1¢mid 87¢
  • bid10086¢
  • bid10085¢
  • bid4984¢
  • bid13271¢
  • bid27270¢
  • bid28965¢
  • bid30064¢
  • bid10061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T3.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17m ago87¢15bought no
17m ago87¢7bought no
2d ago88¢15bought yes
2d ago89¢866bought yes
2d ago88¢24bought yes
3d ago89¢1,991bought yes
3d ago90¢2,000bought yes
3d ago89¢14bought yes
3d ago89¢5.57bought yes
3d ago89¢3.71bought yes
3d ago88¢1.88bought yes
3d ago88¢1.12bought yes
4d ago84¢2.11bought yes
4d ago84¢12bought yes
5d ago80¢1.8bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.