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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.50%?

YES means Above 3.50%

24h volume
65
4,848 lifetime
Open interest
3,432
+866 over 7d
Spread
1¢
2.49 × 1 at the touch
24h range
79¢ – 85¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%−7

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
24h low 79¢24h high 85¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,03198¢
  • ask9,31097¢
  • ask55196¢
  • ask3095¢
  • ask4394¢
  • ask54786¢
  • ask1585¢
  • ask181¢
spread1¢mid 81¢
  • bid2.4980¢
  • bid2379¢
  • bid1778¢
  • bid2977¢
  • bid28376¢
  • bid58775¢
  • bid10561¢
  • bid10060¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T3.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago79¢16bought no
6h ago80¢10bought no
6h ago81¢12bought no
6h ago80¢5.41bought no
6h ago84¢6bought no
7h ago85¢5bought no
7h ago85¢10bought no
1d ago86¢56bought no
1d ago90¢5.51bought yes
3d ago85¢18bought no
3d ago89¢222bought yes
3d ago88¢0.85bought yes
3d ago88¢0.15bought yes
3d ago85¢1bought yes
4d ago86¢1.1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.