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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.00%?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
158
10.9k lifetime
Open interest
3,491
+2,535 over 30d
Spread
1¢
18 × 115 at the touch
24h range
79¢ – 82¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%−1

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
24h low 79¢24h high 82¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,52289¢
  • ask19488¢
  • ask13987¢
  • ask1,01386¢
  • ask22185¢
  • ask36984¢
  • ask13282¢
  • ask11581¢
spread1¢mid 81¢
  • bid1880¢
  • bid9579¢
  • bid1,35678¢
  • bid67371¢
  • bid33370¢
  • bid268¢
  • bid763¢
  • bid862¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago80¢18bought no
2h ago79¢12bought no
2h ago81¢4bought yes
2h ago82¢2.76bought yes
2h ago81¢113bought yes
2h ago82¢2bought yes
3h ago81¢2bought yes
8h ago80¢3.93bought no
1d ago80¢2.46bought yes
1d ago80¢2.46bought yes
1d ago81¢19bought yes
1d ago80¢11bought yes
1d ago79¢11bought no
1d ago78¢18bought no
1d ago81¢2.43bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.