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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.75%?

YES means Above 4.75%

24h volume
0
431 lifetime
Open interest
284
+283 over 90d
Spread
6¢
5 × 1.15 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 31¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 84¢
24h low 11¢24h high 31¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volJul 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask833¢
  • ask732¢
  • ask631¢
  • ask9.3130¢
  • ask525¢
  • ask424¢
  • ask5.7423¢
  • ask1.1522¢
spread6¢mid 19¢
  • bid516¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid50014¢
  • bid39813¢
  • bid259¢
  • bid196¢
  • bid2505¢
  • bid6,0064¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.75
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago15¢4.31bought no
1d ago22¢1.15bought yes
2d ago22¢4.31bought yes
2d ago14¢1.15bought no
3d ago29¢100bought yes
3d ago29¢5bought yes
3d ago28¢5bought yes
4d ago30¢5bought yes
4d ago29¢1bought yes
4d ago28¢1bought yes
4d ago27¢1bought yes
4d ago26¢1bought yes
4d ago25¢1bought yes
4d ago31¢21bought yes
5d ago28¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.